Monday, May 2, 2011

Thoughts on the 2011 Packer Draft

I don't have any pithy comments about whether Thompson did right or wrong by drafting who he drafted (although I must say I have no quarrel with any of his picks or the positions he decided to draft people for).  However, I DO have some comments about things overall.

The Pack went into the draft with 9 choices and came out with 10 players selected.  Common wisdom was the Packers had so many quality veterans already signed and/or with experience on the team (what with all of the people who played last year PLUS those returning from injured reserve) that there was little chance for 9 rookies to make the team.  This led to speculation Thompson would likely use his 9 picks by bundling some of the picks together to move up to get fewer but better rookies who would have a better chance of making the team.  Thompson (as usual) defied conventional wisdom and used his picks to obtain more bodies even though they were lower in the draft than if he had stood pat.  What do we take from this?  Well, I take three things from it. 

First, Thompson marches to the beat of his own drummer.  I give up trying to figure out what he is going to do.  That is not exasperation or annoyance talking, just a concession that he operates on a different plane when evaluating what should be done than me.  One would have to assume that is a good thing for any NFL general manager and the Packers are lucky to have him. 

Second, I have reached the conclusion that one of the principles by which Thompson operates is recognition of the fact NO ONE, not even a genius as he is cracked up to be, will hit on all of his picks with regularity.  For that reason, I think Thompson has decided having MORE picks results in better draft results even at the expense of having those picks come lower in the draft.  In other words, he recognizes that an unacceptably high % of draft picks will be busts, or if not busts, that the person picked will not be what they were "trumped up" to be (a rather apt phrase to use given recent events).  Having more selections allows you to compensate for the failures you have to expect will occur and offset them with other choices who will perform beyond common expectations.  If you have more darts to throw at the target it is likely you will end up with more bullseyes. 

Third, I think the current draft ought to make a number of veterans nervous.  Going into the draft, Green Bay looked pretty set across the board with relatively few question marks.  Would Chad Clifton retire or come back for the final year of his contract?  Mark Tauscher was expected to retire.  Would he?  Would Donald Driver retire?  Would James Jones leave in free agency?  Would the Pack cut or trade Nick Barnett?  He has a disturbingly high cap number this year for a guy who (given the extensions signed by AJ Hawk and Desmond Bishop) seems destined to not start.  Cullen Jenkins was expected to be gone to free agency.  Would Brandon Jackson be resigned as a third down back?

If all 10 draft picks made the opening day roster that would represent a turn over of approximately 20% of what is commonly believed to be the deepest and most talented roster (perhaps excluding, but perhaps not, the New England Patriots) in football.  I don't think ALL 10 of the draft choices WILL make the team, but this tells me a number of people including those already mentioned PLUS Pat Lee (cornerback) and Donald Lee (tight end)  are on the hot seat and Ted Thompson is ready to make do without most if not all of them.  My gut tells me Clifton and Driver stay for 1 more year.  The rest of those named are gone. 

Oh, by the way (if memory serves) at least one undrafted free agent made the team each year Thompson has been general manager.  Because of the lockout, no teams were able to follow up on the draft by signing any undrafted free agents. 

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